Death of the Four Year Degree?

College graduation rates will peak then drop precipitously in the next 20 years.  The steady rise in the number of college grads has steadily risen for decades, but the proliferation of online learning that is cheap to free will cause a demand shift for work-ready skills training.  

 Fast Company published a story this month about how online courses are challenging the way universities are doing business. 

I have been around higher ed for some time, both as a student and as a faculty developer working with curriculum design - and now as an Extension educational media and online curriculum developer.  Universities are, by nature, giant slow moving beasts.  

So - the nimble, fast paced world of private entrepreneurial visionaries have once again monetized what was once the purview of university life.  The article tells the story of two Stanford professors who quit their appointments to pursue online curriculum development. If more visionary academics evolve into entrepreneurs, universities lag and the private sector wins.  This naturally means that the consumer should also win.  

This means that the very meaning of what it means to be an educated person will shift dramatically in the next 20 years.  Paper in a frame on the wall won't mean anything.  It already doesn't mean much except that you can jump through bureacratic hoops and wear a goofy hat while walking across a stage.  Perhaps those who study college student psychological development would disagree, but the four years between high school and B.S. become less important when you have spent more time and money getting skills that may or may not get you a job.  

Being educated will come to mean that you have skills in your field and that you can learn new things and retool without blinking.  It will have nothing to do with your an alma mater. It will certainly have nothing to do with whether you completed political science, public speaking, and two lab science courses as part of your core university curriculum. 

Because barriers to acquiring work ready skills are being removed, and access to high quality education is more open, and universities are hopelessly slow to adjust - the market will shift and universities will begin to see a decline in enrollment then in graduation numbers.  Smart people will get skills from more nimble sources directed not at general knowledge but at today's work ready skills. 

The gauntlet is thrown.  Bravo, private developers! 

Now for Extension to get more market-demand oriented.